Make Money in the Moves

This was such an awesome interview that has taken me way over a week to share in my blog space. I simply could not just share the link and say;

 ‘click and watch’.

I had to try and write some kind of copy intro.

However, having said that, that is probably the best thing you can do, instead of listening to my

 ‘bla bla bla’😄

Scroll down to the Kitco News YouTube link, sit back, listen and watch this interview with David Lin and decide for yourself if his guest, Jason Shapiro, is an ‘unknown market wizard’ or not.

For those who still would like to hear my opinion about him and some of my personal highlights and notes from this interview please feel free to read on.

“Now is not the time to be a buy and hold investor”

This is a traders market so you need to;

‘Make money in the moves’ 

He has observed the type of money coming into the markets in recent years, (especially since Covid) lacks the knowledge, know-how and experience needed to make good returns over the next five to fifteen years.

Basically there is a lot of   

’dumb money’ 

floating around in the system.

He has developed a highly successful strategy over 35 years based on,

market participation,

instead of price. His guiding force is sticking to that strategy with venomous, religious, discipline instead of allowing himself to be governed and ruled by emotion, sentiment or price action.

Instead of trying to forecast the macroeconomic trend, market forecast or price tops or bottoms he simply focuses on ‘participation’ and ‘consensus’ and then does the very opposite of what that consensus is saying.

If everyone is shorting he will long and vice versa, directional trading, betting up or down. This combined with a few other market indicators has been working successfully for him for decades now.

His contrarian consensus and participation style of investing helps to explain his attitude toward Bitcoin, where he clearly saw the, super long consensus, when Bitcoin was at its all time highs and where even now with its current lows, he does not feel motivated to fully buy into. Still too much noise, froth and long sentiment participation for his unique investing style.

It’s very hard to find someone who is right about the market forecast but its very easy to find a mass of people who are wrong;

“Those who do know, … don’t speak and those who speak don’t know”

The consensus is usually wrong, Shapiro learned that because he was part of it and kept losing money. 

“If I am losing money I am doing something wrong. If most of the people lose money why not do the opposite of the consensus and make money.”

“Their negative alpha becomes my positive alpha”

David Lin raises another very confronting question;

Why does the average Fund Manager under perform?

“they are trying to be smart instead of trying to make money”

It does not work because of the,

The Efficient Market Hypothesis. 

You would have to be smarter than the sum total of all the experts pricing the markets.

This was just a fraction of some of the great advice Jason Shapiro shared with us in that interview and I am sure you will add your own points to this list.

Thanks for reading but the usual DISCLAIMER applies; 

This is not financial advice and is written and shared purely for entertainment purposes only. Any investment involves both the opportunity of making financial gains and the risk of loss of original invested funds. Always do your own diligent research and consult a professional if necessary before undertaking any financial investment.

References

The Crowded Market Report

Unknown Market Wizards

https://www.elearnmarkets.com/school/units/unknown-market-wizards/jason-shapiro-the-contrarian

NIKKEI historical price data

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market

Jim Cramer   <https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/081315/jim-cramer-success-story-net-worth-education-top-quotes.asp>

The Efficient Market Hypothesis

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothesis.asp

The  most Successful Chimpanzee on Wall Street

https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-successful-chimpanzee-on-wall-street

Annie Dukes

Published by wiseguy2016

Life begins at fifty something

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